US dollar falls for 6 consecutive days; metals show mixed performance; polysilicon rises by over 4%; silicon metal rises for 5 consecutive days [SMM Daily Review]

SMM reported on June 30:

Metals Market:

As of day session close, domestic base metals mostly rose with SHFE tin being the sole decliner (-0.6%). Other metals posted varied gains though magnitudes remained subdued, with SHFE zinc leading the gains among domestic base metals with a 0.31% increase. Alumina main contract rose 0.24% while aluminum main contract fell 0.03%.

Additionally, lithium carbonate main contract dropped 0.77%, polysilicon main contract surged 4.55% (third consecutive gain), and silicon metal main contract jumped 2.94% (fifth straight gain). European shipping main contract declined 1.92%.

Ferrous metals series mostly strengthened: stainless steel rose 0.16%, rebar and HRC both gained over 0.2% (rebar +0.23%, HRC +0.21%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 1.08% and coke declined 0.46%.

Overseas Market: As of 15:03, overseas base metals showed mixed performance. LME lead rose 0.24%, LME aluminum gained 0.12%, with other metals experiencing minor fluctuations.

Precious Metals: As of 15:03, COMEX gold rose 0.46% and COMEX silver gained 0.15%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.63% and SHFE silver declined 0.54%.

Market snapshot as of 15:03 today

》Click to view SMM market dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic Developments:

[NBS: June PMI at 49.7%, up 0.2ppt MoM, manufacturing expansion scope broadens] China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics' Services Survey Center released June's China PMI today (30th). Manufacturing PMI rose for two consecutive months, with operating conditions improving and expansion scope broadening. June's manufacturing PMI reached 49.7%, up 0.2ppt MoM. Among 21 surveyed industries, 11 operated in expansion territory (4 more than previous month). As external disruptions subsided, China's manufacturing sector returned to normal operation with stable endogenous momentum. Market demand halted declines with new orders index returning to expansion territory at 50.2% after two months below 50%. Meanwhile, manufacturing export orders also recovered with new export orders index rising for two consecutive months. 》Click for details

► June 30 central parity rate of RMB set at 7.1586 yuan per US dollar

US Dollar:

As of 15:03, US dollar index fell 0.21% to 97.05, hitting 96.97 intraday - the lowest since March 2022, marking six straight losing sessions. Markets are betting the US Fed will deliver more interest rate cuts, and possibly sooner than previously expected, as some US data indicates a weakening economy. A report released Friday showed US consumer spending unexpectedly declined in May, as the pre-tariff hike buying spree for automobiles and other goods faded, while monthly inflation remained mild. Traders now expect interest rates to be cut by 65 basis points by year-end, up from 46 basis points projected a week earlier.

**Macro Focus**:

Today's releases include UK Q1 production-based GDP annual and quarterly final readings, Germany's May real retail sales monthly/yearly rates, Switzerland's May official reserve assets, Germany's June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone's May seasonally adjusted M3 money supply annual rate, Germany's June CPI preliminary annual rate, and US June Chicago PMI. Additionally, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak about the US economic outlook.

**Crude Oil Update**:

As of 15:03, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell - WTI down 0.56%, Brent down 0.33%. Easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and persistent demand uncertainties in the global oil market have improved supply expectations amid prospects of OPEC+ increasing production again in August.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore noted in a report that "markets have largely priced out geopolitical risk premiums following the Iran-Israel ceasefire." Four OPEC+ delegates stated the alliance will announce another substantial 411,000 bpd production increase in August to regain market share. OPEC+'s eight member states will convene on July 6. If approved, this would bring the group's year-to-date supply expansion to 1.78 million bpd, equivalent to over 1.5% of global demand.

"Global economic uncertainties continue to weigh on prices," commented Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

US energy services firm Baker Hughes reported in its closely watched survey that US energy companies cut oil and gas rig counts for a fourth consecutive month, reducing the total to the lowest since October 2021. As of June 27 week, the US oil and gas rig count - a leading indicator for future production - dropped by 7 to 547, the weakest since November 2021. This marks a 34-rig (6%) year-over-year decline. (Compiled by Wenhua)

**SMM Daily Review**

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